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Aluminum prices soared! Aluminum rods and ingots continue to be destocked, and the photovoltaic and automotive markets are “not light in the off-season”!

From Guangxi Ruiqifeng New Material ( www.aluminum-artist.com)

Social inventory:

On July 21, 2022, SMM counted that the domestic social inventory was 668,000 tons, down 29,000 tons from last Thursday and 161,000 tons from the same period last year. Among them, the decline in Wuxi was more, down 15,000 tons from last week. Aluminum ingot inventory began to decline again in July, and it is expected that the cumulative turning point will appear and the cumulative state will continue for a long time. After entering July, the outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption places gradually rebounded, showing signs of bottoming out.

On July 21, 2022, SMM counted that the domestic aluminum rod inventory decreased by 3,100 tons to 95,400 tons compared with last Thursday, and the aluminum rod market was still light.

Domestic supply side:

In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 3.361 million tons, converted to the daily average output of 112,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons month on month. According to SMM’s expectation, the daily average domestic electrolytic aluminum output in July will reach 112,300 tons. It is expected that the daily output in July will rise month on month, continuing the upward trend. The resumption of production in Gansu and Guangxi is still in progress. At present, there is still no news of production reduction in domestic electrolytic aluminum plants.

The profit of alumina smelting is relatively stable, and the new expansion projects are steadily implemented. Although the import volume is restrained, the domestic alumina supply tends to be loose; If the subsequent resumption of production capacity is successfully implemented, it is expected that the output of electrolytic aluminum in July will be about 3.48 million tons, but the recent sharp correction in the price of electrolytic aluminum may have a certain impact on the production and resumption of production enthusiasm of the smelter. With the repair of price comparison, the net import of electrolytic aluminum will increase slightly month on month.

At present, there is no loss reduction or suspension of production plan on the supply side, and the supply continues to increase. However, under the low aluminum price, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the new production progress is delayed.

Import:

According to the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 9.4153 million tons of bauxite in June 2022, a month on month decrease of 21.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%. In June 2022, imports of unwrought non alloy aluminum (i.e. aluminum ingots) were 28,500 tons, with a month on month decrease of 23.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 81.96%.

Consumption:

China photovoltaic Association raises its PV installation expectation: China photovoltaic Association predicts that 85-100gw of new domestic installed capacity will be added this year. Up to now, 25 provinces and cities have made it clear that the new installed capacity of PV during the “14th five year plan” period exceeded 392.16gw, and 344.48gw will be added in the next four years. In the global market, it is expected to add 205-250gw of installed capacity this year.

In July, the automobile market was “not light in the off-season”, and the physical demand for infrastructure was expected to be strong. According to the survey, downstream enterprises gradually began to purchase, and the current volume of goods in Gongyi region was gradually digested, which also reduced the pressure on the volume of goods arriving in large quantities in the early stage.

Due to the impact of off-season and high temperature weather, terminal demand continued to be cold, and domestic aluminum downstream construction remained low.

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